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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study!

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To: Jonathan Thomas who wrote (11114)6/29/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (3) of 14162
 
NOVL

Hi Ryan,

I liked NOVL back when it was $9.00 and sleeping. I still like the
stock which is undervalued and still has a 20% annual growth rate. I
believe they will do a number on Windows-NT when the government puts
the screws to the Microsoft monopoly.

NASDAQ: (NOVL : $27) $9,425 million Market Cap at June 29, 1999
Ranks 734th in the Fortune 1,000 on Revenue & 517th on Profit.
Employs 5,800. Trades at a 15% Discount PE Multiple of 54.0 X, vs.
the 63.2 X average multiple at which the Networking SubIndustry is priced.

NOVL WEEKLY CHART
NOVL appears to be breaking to the up side with an unknown target
price. A positive reaction to Mr. G's comments tomorrow could easily
lift NOVL up to $28 or $30 before mass profit taking to the $22 lower
price support level.

iqc.com

NOVL DAILY CHART

Pretty much a similar up side potential to $28.

iqc.com

NOVL 30-MIN CHART

You can see a top at maybe $28.

iqc.com

CONCLUSION

Personally, I would prefer to hold the current CCs and take my
chances to be called out. With this NOVL runaway, I would load up on
long calls sideshows with the NOVL AUG 30s @ 1 1/8s expecting to cash
them out at say 2+. If that proved to be a successful sideshow I would
immediately buy the cheap PUTs to capture some pull back. The AUG 25s
PUTs would be about 1 at that point of NOVL at a price of $28. I would
happy with a 3/8s to 5/8s profit on the PUTs.
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