Larry, Since the London Financial Times article, estimates are that 30 million batteries per year is low for NI. With line 4 able to make 4x or 5x the capacity of line 1(more than anticipated) and small battery lines capable of being ramped up to very high speeds, The annual capacity could become 40 million per year.
Let's look instead at watt hour capacity. At just 400 million watt hours per year, the result is 10 watt hours per battery at 40 million batteries per year. If they make 30 million, it is 13.3 watt hours average per battery. At non-premium pricing, 400 million watt hours per year at $2.50 per watt hour makes a billion in revenue and maybe $30 million profit without joint venture or royalty income. Even if diluted all the way to 40 million shares, the result is still roughly a respectable $7.50 per share. If you use 750 mln wh/yr eventual capacity, the results are much higer.
Round down to $5 per share earnings to be conservative, apply a PE of 25 and a $75 share price is indicated. If you used 35 mln shares instead, $85 per share is indicated. Not bad if you can buy the stock at $7 today!
To me, the difference between 35 million and 40 million shares is not worth quibbling about. If you like the stock, buy it. If not, stay away. Did you finally admit that they must have products for sale, considering that they are currently running production for Alliant Tech? |
