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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: BGR who wrote (63448)6/30/1999 7:51:00 AM
From: valueminded  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
BGR:

<How is inflation going to kill this market if companies have no pricing power?> A very good question & one I struggle with. A few possibilities - imo #1 and #5 are most likely.
1. Companies get pricing power as the dollar depreciates against other currencies. (likely)
2. Recovery in rest of the world increases demands for commodities sparking an increase in prices world wide. (unlikely)
3. Japan raises interest rates.
4. Inflation already exists to a much higher degree than recognized by the government although I think the bond market is beginning to clue in. Real Estate price increases, energy increases, (which will be reflected later through chemicals and plastics), wage increases (as seen by stock option compensation), paper asset inflation.
5. Interest rates increase although "inflation" does not

Where does all this lead, well imo, I believe that until the market crashes and or we enter a severe recession, interest rates will be headed up. Also, in case you havent realized there is a lot of uncertainty (imo) in this analysis.
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