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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: diana g who wrote (47037)6/30/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
per Diana's comments... correction is over ?

Diana I do agree with your analysis - there is not the fundamental reason for a selloff - except; earnings. I think that when people like Bollinger go on record as to saying they see Oil being shorted soon -it's not necessarially a reflection on the Oil fundamentals; as perhaps an indication of who the street is thinking.Personally if we seen any bad news weakness - the Street is on record, on what they will do; I see bad news in earnings - and thus a shakeout...selloff coming.

Personally; I think the earnings season coming soon for Q2 is going to be poor. Rig counts & dayrates, mfg. backlogs etc. are not increasing to any real degree. They are no longer falling, but haven't really gotten a positive foothold yet either. As such; be it on a poor EIA/API number release, or more likely off of a poor earnings reporting season - the Street will do one of their shakeout runs - and if that takes us to the low, or mid 60's is a guess... I would think that a 15% correction would be a good call...

All I am doing is repositioning and raising some cash. The E&P's unlike the OSX will have better year over year comparisons than the OSX for this coming quarter. So I want even more $ weighting there . Also, if DO & RIG get taken down to the low $20's - they are heads & shoulders values above an ESV, RDC, near $20 imho... time will tell.....

I have sold some OSX laggards of late and am building a huge portfolio position in CRK - and a couple of other gas stocks. I still think Nat Gas mid/small caps areTHE play through Nov. - Dec.

I think the OSX will not really take off untill Q1 2000.... need 150 GOM rigs at work and sub 320 M boe in US storage...untill those fundamentals are reached by the OSX - it's an E&P play...
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