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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (3399)6/30/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Harold,

I think Andreas has a partially valid point. Given the ever-present risk of your biotech investment suddenly being worth half (or even less) of what it is today, it is not unreasonable to expect the upside to be uncapped as well. If as soon as a biotech is quarter-way successful it is going to be taken out, the upside appears very much capped.

On the other hand, if you look at the takeover real premiums, particularly in AGPH, they were considerably bigger than they at first appeared, given that a big chunk of the premium was already in the price. You would have to have been particularly unlucky in your timing to not have made a pretty substantial return in either AGPH or SUGN.

A lot of the smaller biotech stocks have indeed gone nowhere (but down) over the last few years.

BTW, I have always thought Andreas to be a pretty sophisticated biotech investor. If you look at his favorite stocks I am sure you will forgive him all. (Hint: BGEN is prominent among them).

Peter
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