Bill,
As I mentioned previously, I am not that bearish and am still expecting further new highs in some sectors but not all. So, for now, I am in the with the majority not a contrarian like you. ggggg
However, I must keep an open mind to all possibilities. Although there were important new highs set in the various indices today, there is an important worry spot which may support your belief of a
strong pullback soon.
I checked the charts on CRUDE OIL and today they set a NEW HIGH. Of course the stock market is basicly ignoring it for the time being.
What was interesting to note was that CRUDE was actually forming a RISING WEDGE which implied that it would break to the downside. However, per todays performance of CRUDE, it broke the UPPER TRENDLINE of the WEDGE. If the price of CRUDE does not fall back within the WEDGE within a few days, it would imply that the formation was negated to the upside. It is also common for a breakout, especially a negated formation, to result in a strong surge. If CRUDE does confirm the NEGATED RISING WEDGE, I am expecting CRUDE to get into the $20+ range within a few weeks.
Will the stock and bond market ignore $20+ CRUDE? MAYBE,MAYBE NOT.
However if it continues up, eventually it will have an effect. From the charts, it appears that CRUDE could get to $21 shortly. If that was to happen, your contrarian position of a big pullback in mid-JULY
may have some significant support.
Although, I am now in the short/mid-term BULLISH CAMP, I want to remain objective to other possibilities. If you are correct with your
Mid-JULY big pullback, that will be a great call.
Not that you will, but don't let some BULLs bully you as I have noticed with their inconsiderate and imature giggles/comments on another thread(I SAID SOME BULLS, NOT ALL). Although Im not in your camp, as of yet, your position does have some merit and I respect it.
seeya
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