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Non-Tech : Starbucks (SBUX)
SBUX 84.78-1.9%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Daniel Chisholm who wrote (738)7/1/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: benwood  Read Replies (1) of 1506
 
I have my best track record of any stock trading Starbucks. I've made perhaps 18 trades in the last 6 years, and all have made money. My average long has risen over 100% (in typically over 1 year) and my typical short netted perhaps 15% (in typically 6 weeks). Even my current shares that I didn't sell as I'd contemplated were purchased at 15 1/2 just last Sept. The half I did sell was at 35 3/4.

I used the ROI argument many times but eventually realized that argument has some faults: it doesn't recognize the value of being the #1 brand, nor the company's ability to raise capital cheaply because of that (i.e. get a lot of bang for the buck). After over 10 years of very, very successful debenture and secondary stock offerings, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee!

Nevertheless, the stock price had gotten a ways ahead of itself -- I was amazed when it cracked 30 a short while ago. A year ago I thought 16 (post split) represented a good risk/reward point, and it actually got down to that level briefly when I bought in again last fall. Now I'd say 18 would be the same, although I'm hesitant to add long positions right now. I think that everybody on the planet would buy Starbucks for $10, and even aliens would come here and buy for $5, which suggests it's fair market value is a bit higher than that (i.e. what the market considers fair).
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