<<What's your buy signal? When the thread starts talking about brown pants and dirty undershorts? Or do you just gut buy? >>
Yes that's one of them.
Conversely, I think of selling, when the thread starts exhuberant cheerleading, setting ridiculous price targets, and complains that management may be selling us out too soon before the stock price reached some of our very lofty individual price targets. As you will recall, I was very uncomfortable with all the eyahhhing going on here and I cautioned restraint. I warned there was always something unexpected that could come out and bite you, especially with checkfree.
The price decline that recently took place was almost a replay of what happened nearly a year ago, although the circumstances were markedly different. Large institutional investors rush to get out, frightening, and taking with them short term traders, speculators, and other small investors, in the stampede.
I admit I was concerned by the news when it first hit, but after talking to management, people I respect on the Street, and in some cases, even the banks involved in this fiasco, I came to the conclusion that the "Exchange" initiative posed little threat to Checkfree, had little chance to succeed any more than the others before it, would and at the vey least would many months before anyone would begin to know one way or the other. In the meantime, I expected all kinds of "Good" things to be happening this summer which would restore investor faith in the company and it's management one I consider to be outstanding.
In the meantime, in the Roadshow, all kinds of potential new investors became familiar with the company - a sponsorship it did not enjoy before. The offering I am told was oversuscribed at $39. You can't tell me that these people, who were newly exposed to this truly exciting investment opportunity and to Pete Kight and his collegues, wouldn't clamor to climb aboard the bandwagon once the dust settled, once the facts became more clearly understood, and once the stock stopped going down. That is what I think is happening now. As I said last year, during a similar crisis in Checkfree trading, I'm staying with the girl I took to the dance, and, yes, sometimes it does pay to catch a falling knife.
Looking foward to being with many of you in August, and this time Tom Lindt you better make it. Your insights are oustanding and your humor incredible. I just roared at the one about the tape in your basement talking to you. Nor do I mean, to omit the magnificent contributions of Benny and some others. There is an important body of research to be found here, once you wade through the minute by minute stock quotes, cheerleading, meaningless rumors, and other such trivia. |
