Looks like you've been into the shagadelic shrooms today. <g>
Shag this- Here's the REAL reason AG and the girlz went 'neutral':
>Wednesday, June 30, 1999
End of the quarter window dressing, short-covering and stop run, and the FOMC giving Wall Street exactly what they wanted all coupled together to blow the resistance levels completely out of the water. The SPX now stands within 3 points of a new all-time high. The Scenario III chart from last nights update is not out of the running
yet, but it's on its last legs. The only saving argument is that tomorrow is the start of a new quarter and mutual funds no longer have to worry about what their portfolio looks like... they might be selling some of the junk they bought today. Also, some investors and day traders will not want to hold long short-term positions over the 3-day holiday weekend coming up. If Scenario III is going to survive, then it must go down on Thursday and Friday.
But there are also arguments against that happening. First, the 38-39 week cycle we were watching was supposed to end this week (but we allow +/- 1 week tolerance). Thus, if this cycle has ended already, then an upward bias would be expected, at least as far as this cycle is concerned. Also, in the 1929 to 1999 comparison charts from last night, the forecast line drawn on May 24 was supposed to end this week -- another argument for the beginning of a classic blowoff targeting DJIA 12142 (approx. SPX 1500). But I want to give it another week before jumping aboard that train.
The FOMC raised interest rates 1/4% exactly as Wall Street had expected. And, the result was exactly what CyclePro was expecting... no change or 1/4% was supposed to spark a rally. But the FOMC Board altered their "bias" to neutral. CyclePro believes their intentions were not necessarily because they do not want to raise
rates in the near future... rather CyclePro believes that Greenspan sees an interest rate increase "surprise" as the only way to take some real steam out of the equity markets. It is not likely that there will be a rate increase between now and the next FOMC meeting on August 24, 1999, but a significant rate increase at this meeting could certainly spook some traders. Of course, this scenario changes the fundamental outlook on the anticipated blowoff as the Fed-comparison from 1929 to 1999.
Watch the Fed in case they raise rates unexpectedly. The threat of inflation is increasing... Crude Oil is at a 19-month high today (Aug & Sep Crude hit a high of $19.40) and since oil is the #1 industrial commodity in the world with demand increasing dramatically in third world countries, a significant rise in crude oil will trickle
through the global economy faster than any other single event to spark the rise of inflation. August'99 gasoline futures have already risen 42% from January lows and wholesale spot prices have risen 78% -- this ultimately affects delivery companies (via Internet commerce), trucking, airlines, summer A/C, winter heating, plastics, and
every other business, commodity, and by-product derived from processed crude oil. Think about it, can you think of many businesses that will not be affected by increased prices for oil?<
geocities.com
What a dolt. Nuttin can stop this shaggin market from goin up. <ng> |
