A flying banana stick clearly indicates an head and shoulders wedgy coming up through an inverted crack. I suggest you stick to *proper* labels for technical analysi <g>.
This is another reason I don't use tech analysis, it sounds too painful!@!
I also think there are huge benefits to being short some stocks in case of market corrections, etc. BVSN looks like a great candidate to fall if the market turns (due to overvaluation), so that alone is a reason to short.
As to the "how to value BVSN" question, how about I doubt BVSN can double earnings for the next 2 years, so a PE of greater than 100x year 2000 earnings is too high? Or, enterprise software sales in general are slowing, so it may hit BVSN to some small degree (for a 100x PE stock, it doesn't take much) in the next 2-3 quarters? How about whereas BVSN has been the lone competitor for the past 2-3 years, recently competition has begun to enter the market so it will be tougher for them over the next 2-3 years? How about, in order for BVSN stock to go up, their revenue and earnings growth should accelerate (I think they grow liscense revenue about 75% year over year, do folks expect that year over year growth to INCREASE??), which gets tougher to do as a company gets larger and larger?
Elroy |
