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MUK, the world has seen many new inventions / technologies that have transformed life, canals, railroads, interchangeable parts with guns lead to a revolution in manufacturing ,the auto, electricity, the mechanization of farming. One interesting thing that I heard on history channel was the invention of the radial saw tripled production at lumber mills now many take for lumber granted but it was vital to farming in the midwest for homes, barns, fences and railroad ties. Think of the vast acreage that was once grassland and buffalo now farmed. I wish that I could quote some productivity figures for the cotton gin , the reaper, and tractor but they are impressive I'm sure. Innovation is nothing new .While there are segments of the economy enjoying productivity gains there is much talk about a productivity boom for the whole economy but the numbers do not support the hype. If there is a productivity miracle why has it not shown up in company profits. In addition, even the reported productivity numbers pale in comparison with the gains in the US in the 20's and Japan in the 80s. The major problem facing the global economy is there is excess debt and capacity which IMO will lead to deflation. I'll see if I can find a url for some valuation extremes but basicly the market could decline 50% and still be the most expensive in history- or close enough to 50%. Mike |
