"My reasons are that ORB is a leader in a rapidly growing industry, and
has more revenues in backlogs than in sales"
Although I cant disagree in the unbelievable long run, Why do you think this is a rapidly growing industry now? Just what part of ORB are you talking about? For the time being this industry looks more like stagnation than growth. Iridium? is that growing? what happens after globalstar is up? We going to put up 1000 more birds to compete with constellations that already cost to much and have drawn little interest? Seems to me that the costs of birds and putting those birds in the air GOT to come down... is this good? Backlog... could you predict Boeing's earnings or stock price for that matter based, on its BACKLOG of plane orders? What happens with backlog if Teledisec postpones? What Wall street house/institution wants to finance more birds now? PCS buildout, cable modems $40 a month, land based wireless, xdsl, fiber optics, not to mention the companies behind them provide enough cheap competition? I know, lets compete with other countries governments to get things going. I understand with current technology (but am not an expert) that anything from sunspots to rainy weather effect communication with these things.
Lets throw in- going from making $2 a share estimates to losing money this year. Financial headaches you already aluded to. Loss of confidence by analysts blindsided by managment. Let see what else - LOR down, LMT looking to get into the business, GMH now losing instead of making money. Does ORBCOMM make money yet? (no more wine at lunch ;-) )
Now I would really like to own this stock because someday this industry should do well. Actually I'm very interested in your orgional comment. Tell me WHY you LIKE this company, specifically. BTW like your thought of reawakening the thread. |
