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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (27356)	7/1/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Ike, I am in agreement that average second quarter earnings should for the most part shine. Given this first call estimate, what is your next 12 month PEG for the S & P 500? Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the # is currently 28. If they raise PEG estimates to say 30 and the 10 YR U.S. T-Bond yields 5.84% then the so called fair value model Mr.G supposedly adheres to suggests equities are 43% overvalued. What gives? Can you help me with your thought process here? Does that mean bonds are steal of the next decade right here? That the 10 year bond should yield say 3.5%? And if they raise PEG to 33 that the 10 year yield should equal 3%. This at the very least suggests disinflation let alone I dare say deflation down the road? Your thoughts are appreciated Professor K... p.s. you have made some very nice market calls this past week. MACD for DOW crossed last Friday afternoon just after it tested and held your 10,471 prescient bottom call. I really thought FOMC was going to keep tight bias and hence paid for this market insurance. Could have gone either way. Inflation Hawks lose out again. Hope this doesn't come back to bite em in the @ss... Keep up the great work. Best, J.T.

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