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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: N who wrote (1911)7/2/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (3) of 3536
 
My view is the fed doesn't know..., the most honest think to say about a shift in a trend (to productivity) is to say, we don't know how long we expect this to persist...plus their housekeeping with analytic tools. So like everyone else, they watch quarter by quarter...that's my interpretation of 'neutral bias'.

ordinarily I would agree with that assessment...and did up until about an hour after they announced the neutral bias. Unfortunately I've been in this market too long and am starting to become cynical with my advancing years. The Fed in general and this Fed in particular is pretty good at managing market expectations. And they have a variety of tools to communicate with us humble mortals. Sometimes its real obvious and sometimes it is cryptic. And sometimes it is devious <g>. There are lots of ex Fed types on the Street making their living analyzing what the Fed is up to. Sometimes their former associates will do them a solid and have a heart to heart about how they are 'feeling'. The ex Fed guy will then start calling clients and 'analyze' what he heard. Gradually the info spreads. I'm to cynical to think this is accidental but I could be wrong.

I said before the meeting that I believed we would almost see two rate hikes and that there was a better than a 50/50 chance for a third. Nothing I have heard recently has made me change my mind.
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