I had suggested here that the fed might surprise on the "loose" side. The theory being that 1/4 would be enough, and more might be thought of as deflationary, strengthening bonds too much and lowering rates. The lower rates would be counter-productive to the ultimate goal. Sure enough, this is what happened. Bonds will go sideways, probably, keeping rates higher than they would be, imo, if 1/2 point or more had been done.
AG is allowing the bond market to do it's job. It's a brilliant, hands off approach.
Still, I think it clearly means that AG is just not as concerned as folks think about the stock market. From my regional perspective in Redmond, Wa, it apears to me that lots of folks are getting rich, and the speculation is out of control. This must not be as correct as it appears. I get hints that these concerns are overblown when I travel, or get specific info on others portfolio's, or lack thereof. Minor examples: I was in Kauai this week and RE prices are as low as 1990. The Hawaii hotel occupancy rate is at the the lowest levels since 1981. I saw a spectacular ocean front estate for 1.8 million; the same place would be 3.5 million in Bellevue, Wa on the lake. I know several people who got DESTROYED here today "investing" in Starbucks. They thought it was safe. It seems that AG might have concluded that lots of folks are getting rich alright, but not SO many that when they lose their asses they economy will tank. I conclude that he is smarter than me and so I am in his draft.
My long preamble to the answer: imo, yhoo and bcst will be lower in the middle of the month than on the 6th, but that most of the nets will be hitting their month highs by Amzn's earnings. There is a clear pattern of sell offs right at earnings, unless there is a split. I'd expect weakness into a market low in October and a ferocious run from that low all the way into Yhoo's January report. By that time the nets will be hitting new highs, but most will be up about 30% year over year while business growth is 300%. |
