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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER

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To: Berney who wrote (6197)7/2/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (2) of 11051
 
Hi TB

Haven't had much time to post anything .. put in ~100 hours so far this week ..

Dead air .. I figgure to be 100% cash ~11/1 and am tossing a coin about buying in ~12/24 or 1/5. Probably end of year selloff will be over by 12/24 .. But if the doodoo hits the fan then the buy in time may be after the dust has settled a little.

We have probably entered the earnings run time frame up for INTC. Based on what little warnings from box makers and the fact that AMD has had it's snafu, I expect for them to kick out ~$.08 higher than the average published expectations. I also expect to see the same old pattern take place.

1) run up until one or 2 days before earnings.
2) pull back until that Tuesday then a run up to almost the former peak.
3) Price chart looks like a sizmograph after hours with a downward movement at the end.
4) price fall back to ~$3 below strike of maximum loss Tuesday at 1:45PM +-10 min. **
5) rally up to just above strike then drift down to slightly below at the close.
6) price movement up resumes the following Monday.

INTC may pull back a little, over the next day or two, before the rest of the run up.

FWIW

Had one of those interesting days .. In the contest that I'm currently playing they had reset everything for the start of the month. At 9AM I put in the market open order for 1000 INQGM and 250 INQGL. Then went to work. Got home at 3:30 sold half of each. It was a good day. I'll set on the other half until 7/11. The move put me on the top of the list of gains for the day with 106k in gains.

I have current strike for INTC at 60, FNM at 65. INTC high should be ~71 if the strike doesn't move.

Software ?? On hold (sorta) .. Gotta invent spare time.

Gersh

** <G> Are you kidding<GGGG> make that some time mid day that Thursday.
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