Re: HFC Last Mile Solution / AT&T-ANTC
Thread,
Below is a good, edited, general article on the current state of HFC as a Last Mile solution. Notice the author does not know AT&T owns 20% of ANTC. Yet he did pick up the ANTC-NT, "Arris Interactive," connection.
99Q2 has been a concern of mine, but the article (FWIW) lays some of my fears to rest. I always felt that once the upgrades get rolling, shipping product(and labor to build it) would be the restraint on the HFC upgrades.
Thanks,
MikeM(From Florida)
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System Upgrades Improve Cable Equipment Suppliers' 2Q
NEW YORK --Cable equipment providers are poised to benefit from a strong cable system upgrade cycle in the second quarter and beyond. "In the seven years I've been in the business, there hasn't been this level of certainty in the industry," said CIBC World Markets analyst James Jungjohann.
Jungjohann believes the equipment providers in the network transmission portion of the business can't ship their products fast enough to meet the demand for the current upgrades. Analysts agree AT&T Corp.'s acquisition of Tele-Communication Inc. in March was the catalyst behind the move to two-way communications capability and a subsequent flurry of acquisition activity as both telecommunications companies and Internet service providers stake their claims in the evolving cable industry.
Behind the consolidation is the potential for cable lines to create new revenue streams for the cable operators by delivering new services such as high-speed Internet, digital video, video-on-demand and Internet telephony. Some had feared the merger madness would result in a pause in cable systems upgrades, but no such slowdown has occurred so far, said Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. analyst Eric Buck. "The big guys aren't slowing down," he said. "They can't afford to."
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Sector Seen Drawing Big New Entrants
Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. analyst James Parmelee expects bigger telecommunications technology players to begin to mine opportunities within the cable equipment sector.
Lucent Technologies, Motorola, and Ericsson, were at the National Cable Television Association's annual convention in June. "Their presence lends legitimacy to the attractiveness of the (cable equipment) market," said Parmelee. "At the same time, it indicates there will be greater competition in the future."
Lucent and Motorola have agreed to jointly develop and market Internet protocol telephony and data via cable. Ericsson also has plans to tap the Internet telephony market.
Antec Corp., of Rolling Meadows, Ill., is growing because of its 19% stake in a cable telephony venture with Nortel Networks, Buck said. Through the Arris Interactive venture, Antec is AT&T's sole supplier of cable telephony equipment, but this could change since the deal isn't exclusive
[but author doesn't know T owns 20% of Antec. See: Message 10129755 ].
Buck expects AT&T to spend $900 million on cable telephony in 2000 and about $6 billion over the next several years as it penetrates the sector. "Antec is building up a huge footprint," he said. "Antec has the business to lose." Buck sees Antec meeting First Call Corp.'s second-quarter estimate of 19 cents a share, up from 10 cents a year earlier.
The switch to digital set-top boxes, which allow cable operators to immediately offer customers new services and more channels, is one of the fastest moving forces in the equipment sector. By the third quarter, digital boxes should deliver Internet-related services such as e-mail, Web browsing, e-commerce and targeted advertising.... |
