The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (6501)	7/2/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (5) of 15132

Marc: Miscellaneous Ramblings on the Market NAPM index rises manufacturing sector still strong. Labor market still strong based on unemployment numbers this morning. Greenspan reverses bias to neutral-a surprise to most and the financial markets take off. Hard for me to believe this is what Greenspan intended. I posted I. Kellner's interpretation of this reversal and it sums up my analysis. The money supply is slowly tightening incrementally. CIBCR still rising a definite negative in my opinion. Remember not to long ago when it was decreasing? Tonight we may be at the inflection point that Bob often talks about. All three indexes look at this moment to be in record territory. Does one sell here at the top of the market and is this signaling the top of the long bull run? A tough call and that is why we pay Bob for his newsletter.To me being at the inflection point is fascinating in many respects. It separates out the real investors and traders from the amateurs. Separates out the real analytics from the "bull market geniuses." Separates out the successful from the unsuccessful. I am still at 70% equities and 30% bonds and cash. I have followed Bob for too many years not to heed his signal; I will sell when Bob makes the call. In effect being at 30% bonds and cash is hedge against any premature severe downdraft; I am comfortable with this position. My guess is that earnings will come in strongly and Bob will stay the course for the next few weeks. Looks to me like Greenspan has given the equity markets a green light until the next Federal Reserve meeting in August. Finally, as Lars has pointed out when this bull run finally comes to an end there will be some real pain in this market. I know many people who have recently invested for the first time, many who have never been through a bear, many who believe the business cycle is dead, many who believe Greenspan will save the market if it falls by cutting rates, some who are buying houses at what is the top of the market, people on margin that should not be, people who don't know the difference between a bond and a stock, people who believe they have a right to the stock market gains they see on paper. Lemmings are giving me advice, the mother-in-law is an expert, lawyers I know who believe they are really security analysts, construction workers who think they are daytraders...to me it is beginning to look surreal. I often tell others not in the business this may not be the best time to lump sum in the market-their response is a smirk-they are probably thinking what does he know. When this market falls it is not going to be pretty. The lawsuits will fly because those "bull market geniuses" will sue claiming they were really misled. Stay tuned. Don't feel bad when the bull market ends some real, very real money will be made by shorting on the way down. Get ready...I know you are... Sorry for rambling.

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