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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.63

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Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (19179)	7/2/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

The top tine of my long term daily fork is around 11750 at mid July and though I can't move my time forward without a lot of work, In September my weekly fork shows a toptine around 12300. Of course blow off tops almost always violate the forks to the upside by a good amount so though we joke, those numbers would seem fairly bearish if the blow off scenario came true. Just to clarify my first post tonight, I am not giving up the fundamental camp on valuations but am prodding for ideas to explain the long term decoupling of common sense that could last even longer than the most bullish talking head could imagine. Those in the know, know we are in a bubble, it is only the J6Ps that think the market is fairly valued or else if they know we are in a bubble, don't know how big the bubble really is. I know I honestly can't picture a true bear market anymore where prices drop and stay low with no movement for years and years and years...<ng> Buying the dip is a habit that even AA can't cure after it is re-enforced over a period of years. Good Luck, Lee

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