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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.72

+0.4%

Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (19262)	7/2/1999 8:41:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) of 99985

It can't go on indefinately. Two factors make that scenario impossible. Greed and net redemptions. I am worried about an extended bubble psychology, which you question as possibly being permanent "new paradigm". The problem is one of demographics. Will the boomers sink all thier money into equities until they retire? Certainly greed will beat that scenario as smart money pulls the rug out from under them before they get the chance to retire with all that "expected" cash. On the other hand, if there is no crash back to fundamentals and reality, before the boomers retire, the net redemptions from equities starting ten years hence from the boomer retirees will shock the market back to reality. Thus, the bubble cannot expand ad-infinitum.

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