WT ---
I had no idea my off-hand comment would elicit so many responses.
To clarify, I wasn't referring to McGinn as an adjunct of Lucent but as an individual with a personality trait I found offensive --- one I find offensive in anyone. I applaud what he's done with his company and hope his success doesn't lead to believing his own myth. Pride cometh before a fall, and all that.
The two charts you superimposed reflect a telecommunications giant whose stock has soared on the back of the Internet revolution and a networker whose stock has floundered due to a disastrous acquisition and a management clean-up of near-horrific proportions.
If you're a day-trader, you may choose to go with the current winner and enjoy the momentum. There's certainly nothing wrong with that. However, if you're a long-term investor, you may choose to dig a little deeper and go with the stock whose value hasn't been fully appreciated and has more potential upside.
By buying Ascend and Nexabit, Lucent's made giant strides to fill gaps in its networking offerings. Newbridge has all the same technologies and more in-house, all developed on the same software platform, and isn't having to digest multi-billion dollar acquisition fees to get them.
Everything I've read recently has indicated the industry is at a crossroads and the companies that have complete solutions that allow incumbents to migrate gracefully to next-generation systems will be the winners. Under Alan's leadership, Newbridge has been like the Allies before Normandy --- planning, designing, building, organizing --- and in the process has made pacts with companies like Bell Atlantic, SBC, France Telecom, AT&T, and even made a few strides with MCI/Worldcom. Their customers have become part of the allied team and while the larger world doesn't know the status of the gigabit and terabit switches, when they're close to deployment, it'll find out. Don't forget Alan hired a first-rate marketing director, Satjiv Chahil, who's been busy putting together his own team and from what I hear, they have some exciting marketing developments set to launch when the time's right.
Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt Lucent will be a winner. But for my money, I'm going with the dark horse whose technology is second to none and whose engineers, designers, and managers are as dedicated and determined as any I've ever known.
How about posting that chart again in six months?
Pat |
