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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.72

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Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Berney who wrote (19292)	7/2/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) of 99985

FWIW: The Bottom Line Excerpt from the EWT ST Update : 7/02 “The [Dow Industrials] have rallied to new all-time highs in Minute wave five. This push up is called a "thrust" in Elliott Wave terminology because it follows a fourth wave contracting triangle, which ended at 10471 (June 24 low). A thrust implies a swift and sharp move, and so far the pattern is playing true to form. The Dow has tacked on over 580 points (5.3%) for the week just ended. Our short term bullish stance was initiated on Wednesday, when the index punched above 10889: the near-term pattern indicates we should stick with this stance moving into next week. A triangle always occurs before the final wave in the Elliott Wave pattern of one larger degree. So we know that this move up is a fifth wave. Often times, a thrust will travel approximately the distance of the widest part of the previous triangle. This allows us to target a measured objective of 11250-11300 as first resistance. One of tonight's short-term charts for on-line subscribers shows how I label the internals of the near-term pattern from the 10471 low. If these labels are correct, the market should subdivide higher in a series of small degree fourth and fifth waves, so achieving the first resistance target is probable. There are higher objectives based on relationships between waves, but let's see what the pattern and accompanying technical measures look like once we reach this first resistance. Then we'll decide if that is a top or if higher prices are to follow.” Elliott Count This is for the last leg or “thrust” from 10471. Mr Hochberg's count is on a 30-min chart: 10471 – 6/24 – 13:30----------------------------[iv]-4 10650 – 6/25 – 11:30------------------------(i) 10538 – 6/25 – 15:30------------------------(ii) 10691 – 6/28 – 11:00----------------------i 10634 – 6/28 – 09:30---------------------ii 10815 - 6/29 – 15:30-----------------i 10733 – 6/30 – 10:30----------------ii 10797 – 6/30 – 12:00------------i* 10753 – 6/30 – 13:30------------ii* 11002 – 6/30 – 15:30------------iii* 10905 – 7/01 – 10:00------------iv* 11140 – 7/02 – 15:00------------v--iii* A very complicated count. It had me stumped so I take my hat off to Mr. Hochberg. It looks as though both Bob Prechter and Steve Hochberg are calling for “the sharpest decline since the second quarter of last year”. This means that they still expect the July cycle low to come down on schedule. Be prepared: they might just be right. If 10409 6/01 is taken out then my 9 month cycle was positioned incorrectly. Turbulent times are approaching so take care! A Very Happy Fourth of July to all! Ç§ boards.fool.com

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