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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model
EBAY 83.82+3.7%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Doug Fowler who wrote (3993)7/3/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Doug Fowler  Read Replies (1) of 7772
 
Prediction for eBay Q2 Results

This is a bit more tricky than usual due to the outage and refunds.

For example, did eBay collect the outage revenue and then give it back, or did they never charge to begin with?

Generally, eBay charges the listing fees when the item is listed, and the commission when it is sold. But, eBay also does not charge the credit cards of the sellers except for once a month.

Anyway, WITHOUT the outage, eBay did between $45M and $48M for the quarter.

Assuming a charge of $4M because of the outage, that puts collected revenues in the range of $41M to $44M.

Auction count growth for Q2 (assuming no outage) over Q1 is about 35 percent.

As we all know, that rate of growth has slowed down to around 25 percent (maybe even a little less).

I'm not sure how Wall Street is going to react to all of this. Growth in Q2 has historically been much slower than Q1.

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