Re: DSL and the Kumar interview.
Hi Ken and All,
Kumar seems to understand the thinking of upper management of the ILECs quite well. For them, it is not a question of adopting new technologies to provide better services than the competition. (Better to move in lockstep and avoid being the pioneer with the arrows in the back.) Rather, it is a matter of losing revenues as the archaic T-1 methodology is eroded away. A cash cow is a cash cow and no sensible executive would try to destroy that for the sake of a loosely defined technological revolution that only has a vaguely defined income stream. IRUs and SLAs are seen as no suitable substitute for dedicated leased lines and metered access.
In the terminology of Tim Denton's "Netheads vs. Bellheads", tmdenton.com
Kumar is a classic Bellhead. The solution for a copper based network, the PSTN, is obviously copper based. Of all the broadband solutions available for the last mile, this is the most evolutionary and the easiest for the guys in the corner offices to comprehend and manipulate. Seems case closed from the ILECs point of view, just provide enough change to keep the pesky LDMS, MMDS, MDS and MSO guys at bay and do everything possible to maintain the present, very profitable, network elements that are already in place and largely paid for. My conclusion from all this is that the ILECs will deploy the DSL solution as slowly as possible, thus frustrating attempts by correspondents on this thread to find the best of the DSL vendors as investment "rockets". The guys who are setting the pace for the evolution to DSL have their foot planted far more firmly on the brake than on the accelerator. There will be no ground swell from the general public or from small businesses for DSL because these interest groups are essentially powerless to control the installation of CO gear which must necessarily precede the CPE DSL gear installation.
One thing about Kumar's assessment of the playing field strikes me as a most peculiar oversight.
To wit: JVT: Whom do you see as the winner in last-mile access technology?
BK: I'm still convinced that the majority of future access will be DSL. It will get a huge chunk of that business and dominate future access. Other technologies, such as cable and wireless, will be niche players.
Overlooked in the discussion is the most powerful solution of all. Namely fiber optics, with its vastly superior bandwidth. The problems of bandwidth on the backbone are being addressed with remarkable zest and the rate of transmission is growing exponentially. While in 1998, the throughput on the entire Internet was on the order of 1 Terabit per second, system are now being planned (by NT, among others) that will have the same throughput capability on one proprietary network alone. This is an astounding transformation. The techniques of DWDM and pure optical switching by means of VCSELS and other lasing semiconductor solutions will in short order filter down to solve last mile problems. Probably not next year, but by 2004 we should expect to see OADMs that scale to the neighborhood. It's my belief that when this revolutionary change comes along, that DSL will have the feel of the railroads attempts to modernize its network in the 50's with sleek VistaDome cruisers and Diesel Electric locomotives that cost a fortune and simply could not compete with the offerings of the Douglas Co. and Boeing. Oh, DSL will be a nice ride alright, but why ride when you can fly?
While some on this thread do the DD on DSL, I will prefer to investigate the brave new world of IP over WDM, GaN and its cousins, OADMs, and joys of transparency.
Have a great weekend!
Ciao, Ry
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