Hi Frank,
Re: > > >One of the problems with the ensuing value structures on the 'net which are engendered by broadband is not that they will not cause wealth creation for the participants. Surely wealth will be created. Rather, the very nature of many emerging value structures is to shift the reward to those layers of usage that are removed from the physical transport medium, altogether. This has to be a less-than-appealing prospect right now in an era of runaway (although still very vaporous to a large extent) expectations regarding the eventual fruits of e-commerce and enhanced entertainment services delivery.< < <
IMHO that what you have said is not only correct, but that it is the predictor of the inevitability of a coming shakeout. If one subscribes to the inevitability of the dumb network, and subscribes to the necessary migration of both control and applications to the edges, and subscribes to the notion that the more the network evolves, the more that "value" will be associated with and accorded to content than to transport and enabling services themselves, it somewhat follows that those companies that are in the transport and delivery service had better get damn good at doing it very cost-effectively and that those who can't will not survive. (Certainly not a new economic concept, but one which IMHO will become more compelling).
The logical outcome of the expected future success of the "network economy" almost necessarily implies that the network, itself, keep reducing itself to smaller and smaller portions of the economic pie. For a while, the physical problems of providing effective last mile services will temporarily offer opportunities to create income for the providers of such services, but if they really do their jobs, they will force themselves to gradually just becoming and indistinguishable part of the dumb, end-to-end network, and their ability to extract income for their owners will decrease as their invisibility increases.
I think the above protends concentration and consolidation to an extent even greater than many have anticipated.
It will be a challenge to try to look several frog-leaps ahead to figure out who the ultimate survivors will be.
Have a great holiday weekend,
Steve
PS - Thanks for the Nethead vs Bellhead article. As read it last weekend I couldn't help thinking:
1. Could it be that the incumbents are really still be thinking that data is just a disruptive special case of voice transmission and that it (and we) will all ultimately go away?
2. Has there really been any change in the Bellhead attitude portrayed so well by Lilly Tomlin's Ernestine character's statement "Heavens, we ARE the phone company; WE know what you need"?
3. Is there really room in the "bellhead world" for the article's
"Intelligent Bellhead"? |
