Hi Dwight, Fundace ... I think the 'catastrophe' that Dwight is worried about is sometimes called deflation. I've been expecting it to occur any moment now for the past 3 years ... I was betting on this happening when I opted for early retirement.
I believe it will force a significant re-ordering of investments both by corporations and individuals ... everyone will become much more focused on productivity and value for each purchase ... I think there are already signs of this type of behaviour ... Delta/Boeing deal might be an example. I don't see it as a problem for Novell ... more like an opportunity!
We need to remember that we own an asset (Novell's Software Technology) that can transform everyone's old Intel PC's into devices that can amplify the value of all of existing IT systems, reduce the cost of managing Networks, extend most Network's useful reach to create new market opportunities. Best of all, it's saleable value increases with the number already installed and it's production & distribution cost is almost Nil.
Telecom reforms, substantial increases in Digital Communication Bandwidth, even new communication technology deployments are all acting to increase the market opportunity for not only 'servers' but applications that run on servers ... biggest problem that everyone will have to deal with is ... finding & managing all of these Network resources ... guess who has the only working technology capable of addressing this opportunity now? You do, if you own NOVL Stock.
Now ... if only we can get the Novell Management to package, market, and sell ... I prefer sooner rather than later. Other companies are attempting to catch up ... see the latest CISCO/MicroSoft deal, it seems to have more potential for real results than anything MS tries to do with Windows ... they might pull it off in 12 to 24 months ... Now, wouldn't it be nicer for us NOVL shareholders ... if most of the customers had already bought something from Novell by the time MicroSoft had something real ready to sell?
I'm not worried about too much about the Fed, inflation, deflation, etc ... I'm more worried that our management will not act effectively within this amazing 'window' of opportunity. We just found a new leader ... I think that Management & Leadership are NOT the same thing there's still a problem to fix before the opportunity becomes cash in our bank accounts. The last few days have been very encouraging.
I don't think we can declare victory yet, we need to keep up the pressure for change at Novell.
I think 'we' (particularily Joe Antol) have actually helped get attention paid to the problems at Novell ... and provided support for some of the changes. I hope that we don't lose our focus, because the job is only 1/2 done ... there's still some months of good old hard work ahead for the Novell team. I think the people that do most of the technical work at Novell can beat all competitors ... but won't if their management keeps them too busy dealing with the management 'career problems' ... and the stock will stall out before it reachs Reginald's $36 estimate. If we can get these Novell people focused and organized ... I think we can probably double Reginald's price in less than a few years.
Let's not let up on the real problems!
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