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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: Tom C who wrote (6274)7/4/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: J.L. Turner  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
Certainly not,in fact on the surface it is cause for happy faces.Does it matter that systems were found that were thought to be compliant were in fact not?If you are a Polly probably not;because you can legitimately argue that they were quickly fixed,no harm no foul.
If you did a little more research you would know that Capers Jones in one of his books "Patterns Of Software Systems Failure and Success" shows statistically the % of software projects by SIZE of project---that are likely to be finished early,on-time,late or never.Yes,NEVER;some 23.82% of average projects are never completed.Y2k may be technologically trivial and intellectually boring to the big brains but it is certainly a larger than average project.
Here is the spectrum:
Size of project Average
Early 5.53%
On-time 56.94
Delayed 13.71
Cancelled 23.82
Total 100.00%

I'm assuming that no y2k project has been cancelled or downsized(does decreasing the number of critical systems constitute downsizing?),I may be wrong on that.

The average software project according to Capers Jones has a 13.7% chance of being late.Is that meaningful?After all if a software project is only a day or two late; the time of a "winter Storm"it probably doesn't matter.More info:
Average Project
Minimum Duration in months 14.2
Actual Average Duration in months 27.1
Estimated Duration in months 19.36

Think about about what this means in the real world.The average project takes 27 months to complete.The average project is estimated to take "only" 19.36 months.The average project "IS 7.65 MONTHS Late".The larger than average projects have much longer late times.Can you weather a 7.65 month storm?

J.L.T.




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