goldsnow, there will be no calamity if the price of oil were to creep to the $35 to $40 over the next 25 years and do it gradually. If that where to happen, as I mentioned, oil shale and stranded natural gas will find its way on the market. I believe that BP alone has more than 25 trillion CuFt of stranded natural gas just on the "North Slope", I have heard figures in the 5000 trillion cuft of discovered but stranded natural gas "reserves" in the world. Right now it is worthless, but the oil companies are working hard to find cheap ways to convert these to liquid at the gas well head (also known as compact GTL technology).
Remember, in Europe people are paying between $5 to $6 dollars per gallon of gasoline (most of it, 80% or so is taxes), and yet they are managing quite well. If the price were to jump there over a short period, then you may expect economic dislocation, but IMHO, no "Big Kahuna".
Zeev |
