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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: LindyBill who wrote (3404)7/4/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
I think we can pat ourselves on the back that we saw this coming.

No, Bill. If I can pat myself on the back that I saw it coming, I get a slap on my wrist for thinking it would happen at least a year earlier than it did. On the other hand, you can put a crown on your head for the incredible timing of seeing exactly when conditions turned. Unbelievable!

Having tipped my hat in your direction, I'll now step up to the plate and offer yet another opportunity to show where I'm not as good as you at this stuff. Even so, I disagree with your thinking that the article is overly pessimistic. The PC's undoing in the consumer marketplace will be the hand-held devices. This was alluded to in the article but was addressed only very slightly, undoubtedly because the author knew we'd read it and comment that the handhelds haven't yet crossed the chasm. :)

The essence of my thinking goes like this. Household penetration of PCs will top out at about 65% to 70%. The other households won't ever own a PC because they will own several hand-held devices instead. They're more mobile, can be used at the same time more easily by multiple members of the family. And the hand-held device can be more easily and cost-effectively purchased to accomdate the individual, differing needs of the various family members.

Just my opinion.

--Mike Buckley
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