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Jack, that's a pretty optimistic prediction. I'm curious as to know how you came to that number, or is the 4-5M prediction for the first full year just an arbitrary guess? That would be 40,000-50,000 units in the first full year! I can't see them coming even remotely close. Can you give me a breakdown of where you think the sales will stem from as well as the number of units each will be using per month? I really need this clarification, as my expectations are much lower than yours given the number of units the sites have been using per month in the trials. If a large site is using 5-10 per month, then a small one would probably use 3-5 per month. In turn, given the current # of company's involved, I can't see them selling more than 50-100 units per month tops in the first year, or 600-1200 units over the year. That would be $60,000-$120,000 in revenue between now and December of 2000. I think that's a decent start. But one source of revenue I haven't factored into the calculation is the military, as I am uncertain of that avenue for sales. I've taken your point regarding the number of medics in the army and that combat may not be required to garner sales. But what I'm wondering is why no pre-orders have come through? The military trials finished ages ago! Wouldn't you think they'd be pre-ordering by now? Also, if they do start ordering, what might they order per month (to maximize the accuracy of your answer, can you state specific locations ie. bases etc. that would be ordering and in turn the number of units per month they were using during the trials)? |
