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Non-Tech : ZOLT
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To: Larry who wrote (162)3/21/1997 12:04:00 PM
From: flyguy   of 970
 
Larry:

I strongly disagree that ZOLT will have the lowest cost precursor. Labor is a very small component of the cost of precursor. If you look at acrylic fiber manufacturing, it is well known in industry that the US companies (Monsanto and Cytec-now Sterling) are the lowest cost producers in the world. If you also consider the fact that you have to ship the precursor to US carbon lines (or ship carbon to the US from Hungarian lines) that adds at least 30 cents per pound. If your cost of precursor is less than $1, that is a hefty premium. The lowest cost producer of carbon fiber PAN will be Monsanto - they are currently working with Toray and maybe Hexcel on introducing a precursor to compete with Courtalds (and ZOLT). Look for a Monsanto/Toray announcement within the next 30-60 days. ZOLT is facing very stiff competition. It should also be noted that ZOLT's Hungarian acrylic factory is based on Dupont technology including dry spinning of acrylic. A dry spun acrylic fiber for carbon precursor has NEVER been successful. If you talk to anyone in the acrylic industry, they all suggest that ZOLT has a very big hurdle to overcome (and will end up being at a cost disadvantage to Monsanto).

Scott: The "big guys" are Toray, Toho, Hexcel, Amoco, Mitsubishi Rayon. Future "big guys" are Monsanto and Owens Corning. Look back on some of my earlier posts as I have addressed this earlier.

Good Luck.
Flyguy.
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