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Technology Stocks : Pixar Animation

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To: HECTOR RUBERT who wrote (2541)7/6/1999 2:26:00 AM
From: Adam Nash  Read Replies (1) of 3261
 
Pixar cannot maintain the abnormal growth they will see in earnings over the next 12-18 months long term, so they don't deserve quite the P/E you are describing.

Don't get me wrong, I am long Pixar, and have been for a couple years. However, I prefer to use the discount method for valuing Pixar.

I tend to see Pixar as having approx. $2.50 in earnings within 3 years, and I use a 30x P/E on that and then discount back to the present.

That method has been giving me mid-40s for Pixar for 1999, assuming a 25% discount rate to my cash flow projections. That assumes Pixar's films (TSII and Monsters) make approx $120M domestic box office ea.)

- Adam
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