G, Interesting to see the beginning of a tremble. Certainly the Networks face a new challenge, but they've weathered worse. Remember when you TV only had 12 channels and they were king? How any programming can survive the sea on 100+ channels to choose from seems amazing.
Seems to me that the PVR serves 2 functions. To catch things that would have been missed in this chaotic sea of programming, and to view your favorite shows that are normally played at inconvenient times. Sounds like I just said the same thing, but in the first case I mean putting preferences into an agent based software that is constantly searching program listings for keywords like scuba diving or Mongolian throat singing.
So, it would seem that the power could lie in having the best quality search engine for programming. Another portal scenario. Tivo and Replay figure they can control the search engine business for this new PVR, but that's not likely. The Networks can't control it either because they only know what they themselves plan to play.
Yeah, so I constantly ask myself what's so complicated. If I only want to record simple routines like the evening news everyday so I can watch it after dinner instead of missing it while I drive home, why do I need the pay service from Tivo? Why can't I program any PC with a big hard drive to do the same thing? Getting a programming guide is really easy. Is collecting data from a TV tuner all that hard?
I should think the really cool stuff would come when the quality of the searches gets very accurate and sophisticated. Time will come when ASR will transcribe many programs and offer word searches on audio content. Intelligent audio/video search engines will be an extension on what Yahoo and Excite do today.
In fact, Yahoo buys Broadcast.com because they also want to compete with the Networks with video on demand. If I want to watch and old movie, why should I need to see it only when a network plays it? If I want to see a repair manual for a 68 Volkswagen Beetle with a video, will I go to the Networks? Yeah great, TIVO tells me that The King and I is playing next Thursday, but that's not important enough to make me buy a PVR.
If I simply want to watch Alley McBeal and skip the commercials, that must be an easy job for a PC. It's really the Tivo/Replay angle that I see having a short life. Somehow, they must have greatly improved intelligent searches, which I haven't heard of.
And advertising. When the current advertising paradigm wears out, Networks will adapt. They'll just switch to new forms such as banners and embedded ads. Of course, the doctor in ER where's a Nike shirt under his operating gown, etc.
The ability to get interactive will make TV ads more valuable. How about when you can use your hard drive to put the show on hold and click your remote/mouse on buying a thing that you see in the show? You like Alley's cool Armani suit; you click your remote/mouse on it, get a quote and details, and perhaps even buy it immediately.
Yes, it's Tivo's role I question more than the network. No matter, all paths lead to greater usage of storage.
Regards,
Mark |
