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Technology Stocks : Symantec (SYMC) - What does it look like?

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To: Kevin Zilton who wrote (1623)7/6/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: Just_Observing  Read Replies (1) of 2069
 
I have not had the time to follow the stock as closely as I used to. But there are some observations that I can make that everyone can verify for themselves. So here goes:

1. Call options are very expensive in relation to put options - the July 30 call option is going for 5/16 to 1/2 while the put option is going for 1/8 to 3/8. Since the stock is at 27.5, one would expect that these options should be priced about the same. Similarly, the Aug 30s (which includes the earnings release) are going for 1 3/4 to 2 while the Aug 25s are going for 1 1/8 to 1 3/8. Again a very large upside bias.

2. SYMC retail sales for April and May were on track with April being much stronger than May. I expected a falloff in sales in June because of the release of Microsoft's Office but the falloff does not appear to be materializing.

3. My guess is that the PE for SYMC will move up steadily with JT in charge. Every time I listened to Gordon Eubanks, I had this sinking feeling that, perhaps, he needed help. And, of course, people around him had to be constantly feeding him numbers during the Q&A with analysts. He never came across as decisive. I was really surprised that MSFT used him as a defense witness because I knew that he would disintegrate easily. I don't mean to speak ill of Gordon, but it is an understatement to say that he did not inspire confidence. With JT at the helm, he should provide steady, confident leadership that should guide the PE higher. I especially like the compensation package that has been developed for JT.

4. Systemworks has been selling for more than 6 months and now SYMC can begin to get the $30 a year maintenance fee. It is critical that they get a decent renewal rate because they have been virtually giving away the software. Even with a 30 to 40% renewal rate, SYMC will find a much needed stabilizing revenue stream. The bad news here is that NETA is giving away their competing Office product for free in order to gain such a maintenance stream of revenue.

5. This quarter should turn out just fine for SYMC, IMHO.

That's all the time I have for now. I hope that the information has been useful. Best wishes to all.
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