ANYI & BANY summarized - the C. McD perspective:
ANYI VITAL STATS:
* Begins trading Wednesday (7/7) - the first OTC:BB new issue of
1999 (first since SEC began enforcing fully reporting BB stocks rules
in Jan. ‘99).
* First sale "designated" at $3, but MMs will set price based on
demand.
* ~3 millions shares outstanding (< 4 million fully diluted w/
warrants & options)
* ~1.7 million tradable float:
800,000 held by BANY ( ~26% ; price/share BANY = ~8.8%
price/share ANYI)
200,000 were distributed through BANY shareholder dividend.
UPDATE INFORMATION:
There is so much going on that I thought I'd take a shot at summarizing
some of the main issues here. The following 2/5/99 post was my
summary of things when ANYI filed its first SB-2 to begin trading - -
when it looked liked trading was imminent:
Message 7674582
Since that time, 5 months later, the ANYI chat has dwindled from its
peak following the first SEC filing. BANY went from $0.625 to $1.50
in the two days during the filing, but slowly gave nearly everything
back due to the uncertainty of ANYI's trading date. The internet hit its
April peak, corrected by ~50%, and "quality" issues appear to be on
the rebound again. A record number of IPOs (nearly all ".com") are
hitting the streets with some still doing well (ASKJ, Wit), but some
.com IPOs are not doing so well (SRCH, INTM). IPO "backdoors"
remain a favorite pastime for those unable to get in on actual IPOS - -
and they remain as dangerous as ever (KLOC, SUPC).
Since February, MLRE, a hot BB stock that debuted in December and
went from $1.50 to $27, has fallen all the way back to $3.
Shopping.com (previously OTCBB:IBUY), which was bought by
CPQ for $220 million, was repurchased by CMGI as part of the Alta
Vista buyout. Shopping.com, which is similar in many ways to ANYI,
rode from <$1 to >$40 as a BB stock, was investigated by the SEC,
dropped back to ~$1, and recovered to ~$12 before it was purchased
for ~$18 [FYI - for $220 million, ANYI's price tag per fully diluted
share would be ~$55/share].
FAST FACTS:
* BANY was up ~20% (currently ~$0.90/share) Friday following 3
PRs from ANYI.
* There will be an ANYI investor conference call Tuesday at 4:30
(212-346-6513).
* ANYI has not yet received any meaningful attention from any major
news outlets.
* ANYI has a 1/3 page promo in the Barrons advertising section
(Page. 31) this weekend.
* ANYI dramatically upgraded their websites on Friday afternoon
(7/2).
* ANYI uses DRIV (Digital River) to sell ESD software.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS/FORECASTS:
>Last year a BANY shareholder was ordered to cover short position,
which may have resulted in a ~10,000 share short of ANYI which
must be covered when trading begins.
>ANYI's tradable float has been estimated to be as little as <100,000
shares.
>CEO Scott Sitra will receive a salary of $1 this year, unless he can
exercise his stock options at prices of something like ~$30, ~$50, and
~$100.
>ANYI is said to be planning another round of financing to make
ANYI eligible for the Nasdaq (see UBET, formerly on OTC:BB,
traded at $1.5 before moving to the Nasdaq, where it went to $27).
VALUATION CALCULATIONS:
Depending on how you look at it, BANY can be used to predict
ANYI's price, or ANYI's predicted price can be used to predict
where BANY will end up. BANY's stock price theoretically
"realizes" an 8.8% value of ANYI's stock price (roughly 10 to 1).
BANY's stock price before the ANYI deal was roughly $0.25,
depending on who you talk to. The estimates all depend on the
assumptions you choose, and on how conservative you want to be.
For instance, if you take $0.25 off BANY's current price of $0.90, and
divide that by 8.8%, you can estimate that ANYI will be priced at
~$7.40. However, if you go back and "conservatively" take ANYI's
price of $7.40, and take a discount rate of 1/2*8.8%, and you discount
BANY's own share value of $0.25, BANY is worth $7.40*1/2*8.8%
= $0.32 if ANYI is worth $7.40. Same numbers, different
assumptions.
Conversely, if you estimate that ANYI will trade at $10 per share,
you can estimate BANY's price as $10*8.8% + $0.25 = $1.13. But if
you then look at ANYI conservatively, you can say ANYI =
($1.13-$0.25)/(8.8%*1/2) = $20 per share when BANY is $1.13.
So, if on Tuesday BANY gets back up to the $1.50 it traded at when
ANYI submitted their first SEC filing, ANYI can be expected to trade
at between ~$14 and ~$28. Or, if ANYI begins trading at $20, BANY
can be expected to be trading between ~$0.90 and ~$2.00. Have fun
making up your own scenarios.
LINKS:
Yahoo! press clips can be retrieved for ANYI and BANY:
quote.yahoo.com
The SI thread has a nice intro to ANYI, and the discussions include
several dividend ANYI shareholders:
Subject 25657
The SI BANY thread has equally substantive ANYI discussions:
Subject 16783
ANYI is discussed on Yahoo! through the BANY thread under IPOs:
messages.yahoo.com.
Ragingbull just started an ANYI thread:
ragingbull.com
RB also has a seldom used (until this weekend) BANY thread:
quote.ragingbull.com
The final SB-2 amended filing and other ANYI filings:
freeedgar.com.
DISCLAIMER:
Do your own DD. I own 109 shares of ANYI, which I currently hope
to sell for at least $10/share. I have no predictions for how ANYI or
BANY will actually do. I have had bad and good experiences
ordering merchandise from ANYI. IMO ANYI still has a many bugs
to work out, but if/when they do, they may do very well on their own
or they may be acquired by a larger company - - anybody's guess. The
addition of a small number of new investors will present alot of
risk/reward opportunities to investors - especially if the Barrons
piece is widely read, or if any major news outlet picks up on ANYI.
Do your own research - - good luck:) |
