Finally, someone utters the words I've been longing to discuss. The Kondratieff Cycle. None of my trader buddies have ever heard of it, but it could prove the most valuable bit of wisdom to grace these boards. I'm not going to launch into a tutorial of the phenomenon here, as it would take too long, but if we are at the crest of a massive 60 year cycle such as 1929, well you get the idea.
I wrote the author of a new deformed-wave theory pertaining to the K cycle. This was done in an effort to explain why the cycle hasn't played out in the classic 60 year period. His point was that it still isn't too late to see the cycle repeat itself, but if the trigger event didn't play out this year, the theory probably needs to be scrapped, as the new-paradigmers will have won. Now that Y2K has been largely written off, and the business cycle declared dead, we will likely witness the collapse of the largest speculative bubble this country has ever seen.
My wife dragged me to an outlet mall in Oxnard, CA yesterday, and judging by the activity, this economy is on FIRE. The Fed has really boxed itself into a corner, but with all the political pressure it's no surprise. The longer they prop it up, the harder it's going to fall. The markets are approaching my final upside targets as I type this, on the measured move from the October lows. Happy trading! |
