The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (6546)	7/6/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) of 15132

If we get a good run-up here to follow on to last week things could get very interesting fast. All the technicians will follow Ralphie to the bull side and I don't hear much concern from the fundamentalists either. Will Investors Intelligence calculated bullish sentiment finally get its legs out of the upper 60's concrete and start barreling over the 70% mark? Two good weeks well over 70 may even get the 4 week moving average there. As to mutual fund cash it looks like indeed managers may be starting to rush to get more fully invested and avoid getting performance numbers left behind in this presumed upleg. We already have the 10 day PC moving average at .49, can it possibly go much lower, perhaps a bit given the mid 40's daily numbers Justa was noting recently. Under current conditions hard to see the Fed improving monetary gauges, valuation can only be worse as we continue in the 6% and over region on the long bond and earnings may become less of an issue as we may be discounting announcement of the second coming along with the earnings numbers. I have a modest ultrabear hedge on since Friday and have money in transit to be in a position to take more significant action if Bob should change his outlook soon on the market. This has been a wonderful bull market and a wonderful last week and a wonderful move in the semi capex. Let us use a hypothetical 12,000 target for the year that has been used by some of the stronger bulls. If we did make such a move this year we're only talking about 7% up from here. Given my concerns about negative developments building up I'm not sure the risk/reward is all that favorable at this point Marc

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