MG Re: The big picture..
>> it's either a breakout or, a climax before the entire SOX.X tanks. In the past, the TechSpaetzles tended to have huge, but isolated, climactic bursts during earnings churnings, then collapse (sometime in July?) QTR-3.<<
Have a look at the SOX.X 60 month chart. The tops of 1995, 1997, and 1999(Top??)now in perfect linear alignment. IMHO we got about 2 weeks or so left in this rally if we're lucky. So my strategy now is to sell into it and play hit and run. 40 to 50% cash by end of July.
Todays Trades: Sold AMAT @75 3/4 Bot 4-28-99 @56 3/16
Sold some CUBE JAN00 20 C @15 3/8 bot 1-21-99 @11 7/8
And in the "7 come 11 boys, I'll take your money home" category
In INQGN Intel JUl 70 Calls @1/2
In GTWGL Gateway Jul 60 Calls @3 1/4 (Thanks for the hammer, Steve, I'll return the hatchet when I'm done scalping):-)
Time to plant the flag on the summit, take the pictures, thank the Sherpa guides and retreat to a base camp below the treeline. Also looking ahead, since I'm trading in an IRA and can't short have started the "insurance puts" search again. Looking for big boys that have gotten ahead of themselves and that would have to be sold when the dollars leave the index funds. Somewhat surprisingly, out of the 10 or so I've examined so far, IBM looks like the guy.
BWDIK
-John |
