> it's always advisable to speak directly with company management and members of their board, visit their location(s)(and I'm not speaking just about VLNC, but this should be done on ANY security you might be interested in), speak with their competition, crunch numbers if it ain't a speculation you're playing with......... <
I've got to disagree somewhat. I generally find that speaking with management is fairly useless, for several reasons:
* GOOD management makes all material information public, and makes a point of NOT sharing any information privately that isn't available through some public forum.
* BAD management often tries to pass along additional "tidbits" or hype, which might make the company look better than it really is. After all, it's difficult to be sued for comments which can't be proven after the fact...
* ALL managements are trying to present a certain image. Good companies (INTC, MSFT, CSCO) frequently talk themselves down intentionally. Bad ones often minimize problems. The only place they've got to be very accurate (or go to jail) is in official SEC filings.
I find the same is true of talking to competitors. They'll try to present the picture that best suits THEIR particular goals.
Customers, distributors, partners, and other "associated" organizations are VERY good places to get an accurate picture. They see the whole marketplace and generally have less reason to be biased towards one particular outcome or player. (For example, a store manager at CompUSA has very little reason to lie about which computers are selling. HWP, CPQ, AAPL and the others have their own spins...)
Visiting a site is always good if possible. I like to pass by the offices of companies which I invest in and get a feel for what's going on. Are there cars in the parking lot late? If there's a factory, how many shifts do they appear to be running, and with how many people? How many trucks do I see coming and going?
Note, none of these are "official" visits. Again, it's the skeptic in me. I figure if management invites me to tour a facility, they're probably going to go out of their way to present it in the best possible light and avoid showing me the troubles. (For example, invite me to visit during the one-hour-per-day period when all production lines are running...)
What can I say, I'm a skeptic and a cynic...
mg |
