Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (2898)	7/6/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: Amsterdam	Read Replies (1) of 6974

""mid market enterprise software is more often than not a rotten rotten rotten business."" Spoken like a man that has spent some time in the middle market Var channel. Okay you've got a point, but mostly because most companies don't have a proper VAR channel. If done right the cost per transaction should be way lower than direct. Remedy went a long long way with a Var channel before they finally collapsed with an old dying product (bad example but first to mind). Slgx is growing a proper Var channel and should due well in the middle market since Onyx is trying to do it with a direct salesforce (ugly). At the same time I was trying to contrast it with Sebl that has scaled their salesforce and is showing some symptoms of chasing the smaller deals....a lousy leading indicator. If they go after the middle market with telesales that's worse than not even doing it since all they'll have is problems. Slgx has a good enough product to go uptown after dominating middle market. They can easily overlay a direct salesforce (and have begun to do so) to go after the bigger deals, and from what I hear they are having success in the 200-500 seat range, which Sebl will chase in a heartbeat. The financial comparisons between the two products at that level are stark. As for crossing the chasm I think we're well into the early majority phase. People always think we're earlier than that because there are so many more competitors at this time than during the erp ramp of years ago. So while acceptance is broad, it's dicey to think that FO will track like erp has, and that Sebl will end up have the staying power of SAP. Hey, I'm trying to be contrarian here to keep an eye out for the Sebl downside (I'm long). I remember you saying in a much earlier post that "when Sebl hits the wall there won't be any skidmarks". Rose is early, maybe by years, but I don't mind revisiting the downside picture from time to time. COO of Vntv just resigned, stock halted.

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