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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Stephen who wrote (19515)	7/6/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

If Ralph A. is correct this time, it would be his 'first' this year. when the january to march consolidation ended, he called for a 10-15% correction. understandably so, as the market looked about as vulnerable then as it looks invincible now. the main differences between then and now are that technicals in general seem to have improved considerably, while put/call ratios are near record lows, while technicals in general looked awful then, but put/call ratios showed a marked increase. of course there's also the fact that both stock prices and bond yields are much higher now. the concerns voiced by Byron Wien are a rare exception now on Wall Street; he may miss out on some upside (although an 80% stock allocation is by no means modest), but his reservations are valid. this is of course more important for longer term investors than short term traders; i'd like to compare it to the people who advised to get out of the Nikkei at, say, 35,000 (Felix Zulauf did so, e.g.). they looked like fools for a few months and looked like geniuses not much later. regards, hb

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