Marcos,
""Sometimes the market appears to mis price shares....""
Here is a (I hope) thought provoking comparison between Diamet, Aber and Winspear. The only considerations here are fully diluted number of shares, in ground resource value discounted to 10% of value and respective percentage interests in the projects:
1. Diamet; 32.83 million shares o/s fully diluted(A & B shares combined); all pipes are reported at 66 million tonnes at an average of $US91.00/tonne; 29% interest; exchange rate @ 1.5; 29% interest x 10% of in ground value divided by o/s shares = ~$CDN8.00/share(current share price ~$CDN24.00).
2.Aber; 47.97 million shares o/s fully diluted; for Diavik, all pipes are reported at 37 million tonnes at an average of $US193/tonne; 40% interest; exchange rate @ 1.5; 40% interest x 10% of in ground value divided by o/s shares = ~$CDN8.90/share; for Snap Lake, current resource at 23 million tonnes at $US181/tonne; 32% interest; 10% of in ground value divided by o/s number of shares = ~ $CDN4.15/ share;
Combined "value" per share for Diavik and Snap Lake = ~$CDN13.05
3. Winspear; ~49.8 million shares fully diluted; current tonnage at 23 million tonnes; current valuation at $US181/tonne; 68% interest; exchange rate @ 1.5; 68% interest x 10% of in ground value divided by o/s number of shares =~$CDN8.50/share........
This exercise is not to establish "real" value in the context of market prices(or what market prices perhaps should be) but to try and determine relative value and leverage. Also, many other aspects have been ignored.
There are many possible conclusions here:
1. If we accept Diamet as the "standard", then Aber, once in production, should be worth about $CDN39.00/share, and Winspear, once in production, should be worth about $CDN26.00/share.
2. Diamet is overpriced:-)
3. No matter what, at this time, Winspear appears to have the most leverage to current share price.....
regards,
teevee |
