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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 691.72-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (19489)7/6/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Heinz, in response to your p/c #s posted on the tulips thread. I believe you can toss all the surveys, because the pedal hits the metal when it comes to pooting money on the line in options.

You can draw a channel on the equity p/c ratios from 1996 when there was so much doubt in the market and we have higher lows and higher highs if you leave out last fall's panic.

This is showing to me an increasing sense of complacency as the market is going higher.

From the broadening chart on the NDX this weekend that i posted, we touched the top trendline and reversed with a shooting star, gap open - rally and lower close.

For a sustainable buy spike you really want to get the oscillator to over 100, ideally to 150 area, so a rally to the 80 area and reverse is bearish, bulls need step up to the plate over the next several session.

I can't get intraday stats, but the 9 day spx rsi my guess probably went to over 80 on an intraday basis, screaming overbought, and this isn't coming of some deeply oversold condition like last october, i don't believe this is a break-out, but we are still in an ascending trading range, which can be a bearish formation.

Right shoulder on yahoo today?, we'll see how reaction to earnings are, and aren't expectations for earnings in general very high, which means they will disapoint.

bb
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