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Strategies & Market Trends : Fatty's Donut Shop
KKD 21.000.0%Aug 4 5:00 PM EST

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To: Matt Brown who wrote (2117)7/6/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: Eric Freeman  Read Replies (1) of 5041
 
If you want the short and I believe accurate version it goes like this. Cytogen starts out with some hot researchers, it has plenty of money, it spends about 300 mill. and blows its brains out, nearly. It does get 3 products approved and to market. One being quadramet. It however has been very weak in management ability to market, and strike deals. IMO
Quadramet and Prostacint are both good products, but not simple to administer. Since bringing in Reiser the company has undergone an abrubt turn. Cut expenses, renegotiate many deals, and scrap areas where promise or funding is not there. IE your classic turn around.
PSMA is one of the areas where past research has taken place. The rights are held exclusively now.
Quadramet I believe will start to show sales increases along with the Prostascint. (Prostascint involves setting up, training - over 225 sites now established.)
To go in to the why did they do whatever, in the past, is a long and painful road. However it does tell one why there is resistance at key stock price points, and why I believe Cytogen is far under its real value. I think over a short time as the potential of PSMA gets to be appreciated the value will rise sharply. Also I believe majors will want this core technology(will bid for Cytogen as the implications are realized), as it can lead to whole regimes of treatments. Value of PSMA if it were all to pan out. A treatment, detection test, and locator, for most major cancers. How much is that worth? I know one thing, a lot more than Cytogen at $2 even on speculation, if you base it on other stocks and how potential is factored in. In fact I think Cytogen is worth over $2 without PSMA at all. What is downside - probably .90 to $1 at worst. IMO
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