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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (5730)7/7/1999 12:44:00 AM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (2) of 10309
 
Ramsey, sorry for delayed response. I don't have a feel for the mix of protections provided to a software company by patents vs copyright, trade secrets, etc. Obviously, Wind feels it necessary to include it in 10Q boiler plate. Also, it does appear to me that many software companies have larger patent portfolios than Wind. For what it's worth, Wind's patent by Dave Wilner, et al regards data analysis and appears related to Wind's real time data analysis product. So it's main products have no patents issued. Whether any of this is important, I'm unsure.

The other issue not addressed was that of the VME portion of the revenue. We tend to think of Wind involved in all these "new" large volume areas like consumer electronics, routers, I2O, automotive, etc. I think the truth is more that these are potentialities and that thusfar, the portion of the non-roll your own market that Wind dominates is itself dominated by these VME (low volume, high cost) projects. This isn't necessarily a negative as we are all more interested in potentialities rather than what was. But it would be useful to now how significant a portion VME is in revenue.

Despite Brophy's critical remarks, I have a significant long position in Wind that is presently slightly underwater. I bought an options position today on technical factors. I brought these issues up because for me at least, it's difficult to get a solid grasp on Wind's business and I was looking for comments. I suspect based on various comments I've read that I'm not the only one in that boat.

The impression that the above factors (as well as others such as various size metrics) leaves me with is that Wind has great potential but is extremely vulnerable to competition. It's a company whose progress from a small specialty software company with a good reputation among the VME segment to a mainstream supplier of software to the computer, comms and industrial industries is not nearly as far along was discussion on this thread sometimes indicates. Might be old news for many. Rich
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