P-Patrol; Comstock Resources upgraded by Lehman Brothers... sm cap E&P's
,,,nothing like beating the crowd to the party now is there Post Patrol ? - Ka-Ching$ !
Read 'em & Weep...up nearly another 5% today...the beat goes on...(VBG).
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<<Anyone (Besides Me) Wary of Small E+Ps ????
--Which may be easily subject to stock price manipulation?
--Which are under the control of families or other tight-knit groups which don't include me? Whose interests might not always run parallel to that of more peripheral stockholders?..... I've never been into small mining stocks or anything similar...Some do look very attractive, but I think there are quite a few risks involved that I don't take with OSX companies and their ilk. >
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???? stock price manipulation.... ''mining stocks'' or anything similar ?
''stock manipulation'' - gimmie me a break ! - yeah; Lehman Bros. has been pimping CRK....
.... First; let's get a handle on the right subsector here... the mining stock similarities could be drawn in comparison - ''IF" we were talking about the ''Speculative - Pure Exploration'' plays - where the entire viability of the company depends on the success of an unproven single well, drilling project, or individual prospect area. The fly by night, high risk - speculative and the total , live, or die by the drill bit plays are NOT what we've been discussing here.
CRK, MEXP, HSE, OEI and XTO are not some Papau New Guineau boiler room, hocus pocus-road show, snake oil exploration plays...
These are low risk, proven and diversified; primarially low risk Nat Gas development companies. MEXP has been in business for over 50 years with a sterling Industry and financial reputation - and has worked hand in hand with the top ''big'' Oil companies. ... the comments of being ''under the control of families, or tight knit groups'' is not germaine to this group, or class of companies... this aint TEUPEF, AIPN, or RedSnakeOil Drilling Co....
Many of these companies have drilling success rates of 80% of late, some like HSE are doing refracs and low risk development. UPR/OEI are comparable to DO, or RIG, or GLM in size (relative to peer group).
<< but I would buy into such companies Only if I were Personally Knowledgeable about their operations, owners, etc.>>
... I do not think that Bob Simpson and the boys at XTO have any trouble joining the right ''clubs'' down Texas way...and I don't think that when a firm like Lehman Bros. upgrades CRK a week after some individual investors recognize a valuation and pricing anomaly - let alone the numerous other frontline Wall Street Firms who do know that everything is above board with the likes of CRK et al.... try Moody's or other Bond/financial Rating agencies etc...
<< but little has been said about their potential for Hidden Risks. >>
hidden risks ? you want to compare ''hidden risks'' - okay; how about FGI having an outwardly unexplicable degree of short interest ? Having a CEO who is retiring in 2 years - whose personal interests and maybe even his personal portfolio; may be diametrically opposed to shareholders interests ? Whose companies entire valuation may have been contributed to a one time blip on the Deepwater Rig Construction market - that may not see 50% of the construction activity in the next decade as it saw of late ?
FLC ? - you want risk ?
GLM - bankrupt once before ....
RIG ? - now in the Caymans...?
GIFI UFAB... similar, if not smaller than HSE & CRK; how many micro's in the driller & service arena do we candidly talk about that are actually smaller than many of the E&P's we are referring to ?
Risk ? - how about being at the mercy of Cap Ex spending by the Big Oil's - regardless of the price of Oil ? How about rig utilization, dayrates and earnings that are falling into the face of rising Oil prices ?
One sector controls its own destiny and reaps the instantaneous rewards of higher commodity prices - the other lives & dies, by what the Big Oils decide to do budget-cap ex spendingwise...
Risk ? - how about H O M E W O R K ?
PS - Nothing personal Diana; your post if reflective on the misunderstanding in general of this sub-sector... and the companies that we are speaking about...
My entire point is that both the fundamentals and the risk vs. reward factors for this sector so vastly exceeds the OSX right here, right now - that this is entirelly a ''safe'' fundamentally supported move... |
