Now Alan that is not very friendly, as you've taken something completely out of context. Any trader looking at the markets on 6/13 (just as the internets where going down to test their second bottom) that did not ask whether there is the possibility of going lower, is not analyzing things from both sides. I was surprised that we needed a retest, so was in the process of second-guessing my own assumptions that the market was really OK, and that the interest rate thing / internet correction was mostly overdone. If you look over on the YHOO thread, you'll see that despite considering the other side of the coin briefly, I did catch the bottom there, going long internets (e.g. YHOO at $122) on the second retest, as it became clear intraday that the second test of the bottom was indeed holding.
This is a lot different from what Gary Smith did - he was saying "short the world" based upon garbage assumptions and some light-duty chart "analysis"; way too late for the call even if you did want to short them. I'm NEVER that sure of things - I let the market tell me what it's going to do. The other thing that blew me away, by his own accounting he was up 30 points in some of his shorts, and let them come all the way back in and turn into losers! Sometimes I'm wrong too, but generally not like an idiot (well, maybe once in a while) - which, ahem, is what I was pointing out about your yuppy friend Mr. Smith! If you had read his columns for a year like I have, I wouldn't have to convince you of that!:)
-Steve |
