Sammaster: re "i'm sure dram total dollar sales were down...."
Actually, while DRAM revenues were down 1% from April (using the detailed data that is not made available in the press release), DRAM revenues were up 64% on an annual basis.
The most important thing is that DRAM bits grew a minimum of 115% from May, 1998. I say minimum because the SIA lumps all parts equal or greater than 64Mb into the top bin. When I compute total bits sold, I multiply the various units (1/4/16/64Mb) times their respective densities and use 64Mb for the high bin. Given the presence of 128Mb and now 256Mb parts in the market, this probably understates total bits by about 5%. If so, annual bit growth was probably more like 120-123%. This in a market where 70-80% growth is considered normal for pricing neutrality. Given inventory accumulation at MU (and possibly others), this does not bode well for the pricing outlook.
Speaking of Micron: with the release of the May industry data, it is now possible to match up Micron's quarter with the industry. It appears that Micron's DRAM revenues went from $672 million in the February (2nd) quarter, or 15% of a $4.538 billion DRAM market, to $572 million in the May quarter, or 13% of a $4.518 billion DRAM market. The interesting point is that Micron's retention of inventory led to a loss of shipment share. It would therefore be only appropriate to recognize that MU is hardly the only vendor to be ramping up production. I realize that the dramatic MU production ramp in the February quarter skews some of this analysis, but only somewhat. It may be that other vendors saw the flood of MU product in the February quarter and felt no compunctions about ramping their own output - to everyone's detriment. - Tad LaFountain |
