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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: jeffbas who wrote (7667)7/7/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) of 78777
 
Jeff: Manufactured Housing...stocks sensitive to hints of bad news. Scuttlebutt in the industry has been that when the economy catches cold this group catches pneumonia. This exacerbates negative reactions. The industry has a few big players, some of whom, like Fleetwood, according to Jim, aren't renowned as the best managed, and a slew of smaller relatively unsophisticated players [Most are private]. This structure and a dip from peak demand can lead to inventory overshoot which takes a bit to be corrected even if the demand dip is temporary.
Financing may also play into the demand situation. I recall Greentree got caught playing Fun With Numbers and they were major credit supplier. A somewhat more cautious lending community could curtail sales.
Bottom line: This is not a bad time to start phasing in on dips for a patient investor willing to ride out a series of "buying opportunities" down the road, but if you think this is the bottom and an upturn is just ahead you may be disappointed.
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