[Taking stock]
Bob --
Your thoughts are well-put and well-taken. I'll bounce some ideas back and hopefully others will join in.
<<<* extended time for true RBOC ADSL deployment>>>
If you're going by the comments in the MCI trial, I believe they're misleading. They were referring to video deployment. As far as I know, everyone's still quoting "late '97 beginning deployment; '98-'99 full roll-out."
<<<* is cap an early winner for '97>>>
Far too early to say. Let's wait for commercial deployment to actually begin before calling it. If GTE is indicative of other carriers, no one will touch it without a standard.
<<<* looking at the Pairgain increase..maybe HDSL will be the
early winner>>>
PairGain got an upgrade. It's a mature company with solid earnings. Anyone following the MCI news would be nuts *not* to pick PAIR as an early benefactor. As for HDSL, I believe the more problems with 56K, the better chance it has of succeeding. I wouldn't compare it with ADSL. Different markets entirely.
<<<* are we being held "hostage" by Motorola with chip deployment?>>>
Fortunately Amati's not dependent on the MOT chip alone. There's also TI's and LSI's. But, yes, Motorola is important and I was told today that CG will be ready to sample any time, that it'll take a couple months to test --- limited quantities due around July --- with modems in production Q3. This fits in with "late '97 beginning deployment."
<<<* is the "business model" a winner for Amati?>>>
From what I've been told regarding the TI and NEC partnerships, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever.
<<<Is it possible for you to talk with Amati and get their insight on the myriad of solution in the MCI trial activity.>>>
I'll do my best. I've been given a phone number for the ADSL director with NEC/Australia and will call him next week. I suspect he'll be able to tell me more than RC or Tac since NEC's the contractor and communicates with MCI.
<<<Maybe I'm showing my impatience with the myriad of "what if's" for the next 2 years...let alone the recently disappointing stock movement.>>>
It's not the "what if's for the next two years" that concern me as much as the what ifs of the next two months---partnerships, contracts, FCC ruling, T1/E1 results. . . . The stock movement can be explained by Soros. The nightmare has returned. He's been shorting. I guess if you have to find a bright side, when he's done, no doubt he'll run it up again.
Right now the only thing that surprises me is that no one's tried to buy us out---at least not recently.
Triple witching is past.
Greenspan's prepared us for the worst.
The COMP closed above 1250.
The thundering hooves seem to be fading.
Back to you --
Pat
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